The pair has now shifted its attention to the 0.9716/0.9659 area following Friday’s sharp pullback, noted Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.
“USD/CHF crept higher all week, and then charted an outside day to the downside on Friday that wiped out the weeks gains, this places it on the defensive and attention is on key support is the .9716/.9659 band (location of the 13th August low, 25th June low, the January low and Fibo support). Below .9659 (last weeks low) targets the .9543 September 2018 low. Longer term we target .9211/.9188, the 2018 low. Key resistance, remains the 200 day ma at .9955, and we continue to look for this to cap the topside”.
The Danske Analysts note that markets will watch out for further trade war escalation and 'tit-for-tat' headlines, among the first-tier macro news from Germany and the US.
“In Europe focus is on the German Ifo index for August. Last week's PMI figures finally signalled some stabilization, but the ZEW survey gave a different signal. We think the battered German economy is not yet out of the woods and hence look for a further deterioration in today's Ifo expectations and current situation assessment on the back of ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. In the US, preliminary capex orders in July are due, which will be interesting in the light of the ongoing manufacturing slowdown and trade war uncertainty. It seems that many companies are reluctant to invest in the current environment.”
This is a very positive development for the world
We will have a further statement on China
Analysts at Westpac keep their bearish bias intact for the New Zealand economy while expecting a 2.3% growth rate for 2020 versus previously anticipated 3.1% expansion.
"We expect growth to reach a peak of 2.8% in 2021, as the cocktail of monetary and fiscal stimulus has its greatest impact. Part of the reason for our more cautious near–term outlook is the state of the global economy. The US–China trade war has intensified, and aside from the direct impact of tariffs, the uncertainty generated by the conflict is proving to be toxic for business confidence and investment decisions. Business confidence has been low since the 2017 election, and it has fallen even further in recent months. To date, the labour market has been resilient to the downturn in the business sector, with the unemployment rate falling to an 11–year low of 3.9% in June. However, there are signs that hiring is slowing. We expect that unemployment will push back up to 4.2% by the end of this year. We think it’s only a matter of time before New Zealanders turn their eyes back to the housing market. We’re also expecting a continued spend–up from the Government over the coming years. With the 2020 election coming into sight, we are forecasting that the Government will introduce plans for around $1bn per annum of additional spending at each Budget – a level of spending that we think can be achieved while still running small surpluses, ensuring that it is politically palatable."
Japan’s top government spokesman denied on Monday that Tokyo made too many concessions in trade talks with the United States, saying the fact the two countries were able to reach a broad agreement was “very valuable.”
The United States and Japan agreed in principle on Sunday to core elements of a trade deal that U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said they hoped to sign in New York next month.
The agreement, if finalised, would cool a trade dispute between the two allies just, but some Japanese commentators say Tokyo gave up too much.
At a news conference in Tokyo, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga was asked if the United States had dropped its threat to impose additional tariffs on Japanese automobiles.
“Negotiations are still underway so I’d like to refrain from commenting,” Suga told reporters.
“But I believe that won’t be the case,” he added, because the two countries’ leaders had confirmed, including at a summit in September, that Washington would not impose higher tariffs on auto and auto parts while trade talks were under way.
“Japan and the U.S. have negotiated based on the joint statement last September. And related ministers agreed based on that, so it was very valuable,” Suga said.
China is willing to resolve its trade dispute with the United States through "calm" negotiations and resolutely opposes the escalation of the conflict, Vice Premier Liu He, who has been leading the talks with Washington, said on Monday.
The increasingly bitter trade war between the world's two largest economies sharply escalated on Friday, with both sides levelling more tariffs on each other's exports. U.S. President Trump announced an additional duty on some $550 billion of targeted Chinese goods on Friday, hours after China unveiled retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S. goods. However, Trump appeared on Sunday to back off on his threat to order U.S. companies out of China.
Liu, speaking at a tech conference in southwest China's Chongqing, said nobody benefited from a trade war. "We are willing to resolve the issue through consultations and cooperation in a calm attitude and resolutely oppose the escalation of the trade war," Liu, who is President Xi Jinping's top economic adviser, said.
"We believe that the escalation of the trade war is not beneficial for China, the United States, nor to the interests of the people of the world," he added.
"U.S. companies are especially welcome in China, and will be treated well. We welcome enterprises from all over the world, including the United States, to invest and operate in China, Liu said." Liu said.
The WSJ reports the weekend’s comments by the US President Trump’s top Economic Adviser Kudlow and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, as they clarified on Trump’s Friday’s tweet, ordering US companies to look for alternatives to China after China said it would add more tariffs to US imports.
Kudlow said that Trump has no intent to invoke emergency powers and force companies to relocate operations from China.
Mnuchin noted that Trump wants US firms to start looking beyond China while adding that US President’s reference to the Fed Chair Powell as enemy not 'literal'.
China’s President Xi has become an enemy on trade issues, Mnuchin said.
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1143
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 6 is 108606 contracts (according to data from August, 23) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1400 (8844);
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2265
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 6 is 30201 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2750 (4128);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 6 is 25074 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2100 (1934);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.83 versus 0.82 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 23
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
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